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10-Yr Scientific forecast!
Here you will find a 10-years science and technology forecast! While scientific sites and databases focus mostly on the past, alternativehypotheses is the only website to provide, thanks to its statistical engine, an estimation of future knowledge! This panoptic panorama on our future will help future studies by adding more comprehensive predictions and innovative assumptions. In our view, combining many forecasts may improve accuracy and even creativity of "future thinkers".
|Human become slaves/toys Technological singularity : Stephen Hawking recently evoked the hypothesis that robots could end the humanity. What could we expect if artificial intelligence outperforms human intelligence? (Le 01/12/2020 09h14)|
Read an answer to Hawking from Kurzweil in 2001 :
My argument is that AI will implement empathy, so probably, robots would behave with respect to their creators! said BG. About technological singularity accounts, this wikipedia article. said BG.
|9 millions years-old What will be the most ancient fossils of hominid that will be discovered in the future? (Le 06/10/2018 16h32)|
Sahelanthropus tchadensis is an extinct hominine species that is dated to about 7 million years ago, possibly very close to the time of the chimpanzee/human divergence, and so it is unclear whether it can be regarded as a member of the Hominini tribe. Few, if any, specimens are known, other than the partial skull nicknamed Toumaï ("hope of life"). (source Wikipedia) said BG.
|No Artificial intelligence: the development of AI decision and the possibility given to AIs to hold properties will lead to the dispossession by humans of any forms of belongings (Le 01/02/2020 19h19)|
Agents driven by artificial intelligence will obtain the possibility to hold property and goods will trade with their homologs. Economic growth will be progressively driven by AI financial decisions. Humans will only have a spectator point of view on this exponential virtual market. said BG. In french 2017 elections campaign, one candidate (M. Hamon) raised the topic about the progressive end of "work" and of a universal income for everyone. He argued this issue was also discussed by Bill Gates under the term of "robot tax" There is a very strong debate about the problem that could arise if human work and money aren't correlated anymore. In the question of property, the same issue appears with AI and not robots. But here, the question is about belongings under any form. The unprecedented speed of AI such as in the excellent film "Her" could result in a complete distortion of the markets with a drastic increase of virtual belongings prices. Thus, real world belongings would not be as valuable as they were until the arrival of AI in the property holders field. said BG.
|False Superior temporal gyrus activation elicited by social visual stimuli with intentional contents (theory of mind) is under strong top-down influences ? (Le 30/09/2017 15h05)|
A recent experiment by us revealed that instruction did not change dramatically STS activation... If published, I will vote for False, but if anyone has other arguments... said BG.
|True Signs of alien life will be found by detecting non-random electromagnetic signals (Le 01/10/2020 15h01)|
Taking into account the Drake equation evaluating the the number of technological civilizations that might exist in our galaxy, the SETI organization looks for proofs of alien life existence. If it succeeds in achieving this goal, it will be the most incredible news in the history of mankind! said BG.
|Yes Computer sciences will be able to conceive an artificial intelligence that has a IQ above 200? (Le 24/11/2018 22h14)|
What is Singularity University? They claim: "Our mission is to educate, inspire and empower leaders to apply exponential technologies to address humanity’s grand challenges."
said BG. Siri, the apple iphone vocal assistant, is questioned on the fact that it could meet the Turing test criteria ! See this article... said BG.
|Yes To emerge the phenomenon of consciousness relies on quantum physics specifically, i.e. theories that do not involve quantum phenomenon cannot account for all mind-matter relationships. (Le 02/01/2020 09h24)|
I must say that I was absolutely not convinced by quantum theories of consciousness until yesterday, when I read the news about the NSA developing "quantum computer that could crack most types of encryption" (see ref. above). It occurred to me that brain (and living cells) have developed since the "beginning" in a universe where quantum physics is the rule. It means that complex phenomenons that could help to process data in a "new optimized way" were available to our neurons for millions of years. If the NSA can break codes with quantum computers, why not some of our neurons in a way that we don't understand yet? Sir John Eccles offered a precise micro-tubular theory about that a few years ago. said BG. An important recent paper to read on this topic Consciousness in the universe : A review of the ‘Orch OR’ theory (Stuart Hameroff, Roger Penrose): "there is a connection between the brain’s biomolecular processes and the basic structure of the universe."... "The Orch OR proposal suggests conscious experience is intrinsically connected to the fine-scale structure of space–time geometry, and that consciousness could be deeply related to the operation of the laws of the universe" said BG.
|Google Play or Everywhere One of the following vocal assistant will be the first computer program to pass the Turing test without any human help. (Le 01/09/2020 08h15)|
Additionaly, I would argue that Turing test might not be so selective... I would propose an extension of the test (if no-one has proposed it before) that is : "an intelligence is human, if any living or artificial intelligence capable of judging votes that it is..." said BG. An exemple of a dialog given by Ray Kurzweil with Eugene Goostman the robot of Princeton University. " We are therefore proud to declare that Alan Turing's test was passed for the first time on Saturday. Kevin Warwick, PhD Not so sure... said BG.
|Script writer Writing the statements (verbal utterances) of a virtual agent (in academic research and industry) will require the experience and skills of new professionals (Le 07/09/2019 08h03)|
In my own experience of writing sentences to be pronounced by an avatar, it is quite clear that it is important to tune precisely the style, the pragmatic level, etc. The exercise is closer to writing a drama than creating the verbal material of a psycholinguistic experiment...
There are also interesting issues due to the non prosodic vocal synthesis. It is not easy finding a correct style when prosody is absent and to take into account some faulty pronunciation by the virtual agent. said BG.
|True Virtual psychiatrists will be designed to assess and educate chronic mental disordered patients. These virtual clinicians may be preferred by patients with complex social cognitive disorders. (Le 01/09/2018 14h12)|
|False KIC 8462852 will provide the first evidence of an alien life (Le 01/10/2020 08h18)|
Weird flux were found coming from this star. Researchers are puzzled as nothing like that should come from this kind of star.
Look at the planet hunter website for helping these researchers and at Wright's blog dealing with alien's megastructures said BG.
|Artificial intelligence Religions: religious beliefs are often associated with a high degree of anthropocentrism. Which discipline will provide the first proof against human-centered view of the world, and consequently religions? (Le 06/10/2021 22h43)|
To be more precise with these hypotheses: here artificial intelligence refers to machines passing the Turing test; genetics is about modifying the human species toward other forms of life; extraterrestrial life refers to the discovery of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe; philosophy refers to any form of intellectual advance that makes anthropocentrism outdated, including new cosmological models. said BG.
|An ancient american tongue Voynich: The Voynich manuscript secret will be uncovered. The source language is: (Le 06/10/2025 00h09)|
Only a few words have been deciphered by a careful analysis of the numerous illustrations of the manuscript. for example the word Chiron a Centaur has been identified. said BG. See this reference A Preliminary Analysis of the Botany, Zoology, and Mineralogy of the Voynich Manuscript by Arthur O. Tucker, Rexford H. Talbert HerbalGram. 2013; American Botanical Council. Here one of their illustration for a plant that could be "Caulanthus Heterophyllus". It is native to California and Baja California, say the authors. said BG.
|Yes Asteroids: with the increasing detection of asteroids near the earth orbit, it will happen that some fall on the moon and provoke a spectacular view from the earth. (Le 01/10/2020 07h55)|
It has already happened and was even photographed! See this link a picture from Jose Madiedo, a professor at the University of Huelva. We could expect that such a phenomenon of a large magnitude, seen by million of people could increase the awareness in the asteroid threats and have some political consequences. said BG.
|True Global warming and technological singularity theory : global warming threats will be significantly reduced by the use of artificial intelligence allowing to overcome Human's limited capability to find successful solutions? (Le 24/01/2020 08h38)|
Beyond the fact that AI technologies could help solving complex problems, I emphasize the role of an artificial brain as an authority or even a "leader". Humanity has obvious difficulties to adopt a common point of view and to share solutions to the global warming threats. Rare are the examples of such commonalities: only religions, i.e. God, or, more recently, "Money" gather billions of people around some common thinking. Maybe an artificial intelligence, going far beyond our best performances, would gather world leaders, and populations around a common objective, solutions. It would also propose solutions based on innovations and new technologies, and not on restrictive regulations (like current political leaders). (pict. Colossus: The Forbin Project, from Wikipedia) said BG.
|AI singularity Singularities: Among these potential major changes which one will occur the first? (Le 01/09/2020 13h57)|
In my view, AI singularity is among the most probable paradigm change humanity will face (and generate!). However, all the possibilities listed here have an epistemological potential of "changing everything": I mean culture, religions, economy, and even metaphysics. The importance of the question is that given the order in which these likely divergences will appear, history of humanity will follow radically different ways. And face different challenges and threats... said BG.
|False EmDrive thruster: propulsion systems that donâ€™t need propellant as the EmDrive (electromagnetic drive) is possible (Le 01/01/2027 11h51)|
EmDrive is one of the spaceship equipment that would allow interstellar travels. The problem is that no proof of feasability or even theoretical arguments demonstrate that this system could be designed (picture: White et al. via AIAA) said BG.
|Yes Cryogenic conservation of tissues: Radiofrequency inductive heating of iron nanoparticles may allow tissue warming without damage, a step toward cryogenic sleep (Le 01/03/2019 12h57)|
|Yes, limited to certain people Upgraded reality: augmented reality is only a step toward what I call upgraded reality, in which people live through separate customised realities with their own sets of perception-modifying devices (Le 01/08/2021 10h04)|
The idea of "upgraded reality" is a profound change in the way a human being interacts with his environment and the world. The physical and the sociocultural worlds that have always been conceived as our common reference, will be customized by each person so that group of people will adhere to almost non-overlapping perceptions. The only limit will be set by the Pauli exclusion principle. said BG. In this model, the main concern of major companies would be to propose "worlds" in other terms, cultures, perceptions, interactions that fit well to the needs, the tastes, and even the libido of their customers. As in the question of the effects of hypersleep on our societies upgraded reality will extend the limits of our planet for an always increasing population. These parallel realities could help people finding an acceptable place and destiny and reduce conflicts though new world political instances (a kind of World Union of Upgraded Realities) that would allocate physical resources and manage possible conflicts said BG.
|Yes Upgraded reality hypothesis: with new technologies new kind of psychotherapists should be trained to work on reality modification rather than cognition reshaping (Le 01/08/2021 13h51)|
A criteria of mental illness is a disturbance of reality perception and one goal of mental health care is to bring the patient in a better relationship with reality, and his environment. With new technologies, reality could be modified sufficiently to meet the patients' needs, like an extreme extension of what is made 'nidotherapy'. Psychiatric classifications, psychotherapies would be profoundly modified because one way to provide wellbeing could be the modification of reality! New kind of psychotherapist or 'reality builders' should be trained. said BG. This should have also profound consequences in rehabilitation, recovery and empowerment approaches. These approaches focus on the patients' decisions about their own life and projects. With upgraded realities, it would be about helping to reshape environment to recover health. said BG.
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