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2030s artificial attacks bank banks based changes consequences could designed disappear disease eliminate five from future futurology humans hypothesis increase increasing intelligence into isolated jobs kurzweil language make multiple nanoparticles nanotechnology next often panoptic partially people possibility possible predictions predicts rather sets societal than these third this unique view work

Working hypotheses


Third of Bank Jobs May Disappear in Next Five Years : True / Partially true / False / Jobs will increase in banks / Other from BG will end on 01/09/2022 14h56 “Everything that happens with artificial intelligence, robotics and natural language -- all of that is going to make processes easier,” said Pandit, who was Citigroup’s chief executive officer from 2007 to 2012. “It’s going to change the back office.”
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New futurology will be based on "panoptic" multiple hypothesis sets rather than on unique and isolated predictions on the future : Yes / No / Other from BG will end on 01/08/2020 09h03 read this article on "The future of futurology" in new scientist -- In my view, the intellectual work needed by futurology cannot be done with a reductionnist approach but rather with an integrated view. For example, many people in France predict the reduction of car driving (for the reason of gaz emission and taxes) and the increase of public transportation. I think this is unlikely because one has to take into account a wide set of evolutions: reduction of gaz emissions by cars, increasing risks of viral/bacterial epidemy, terrorist attacks, the possibility to filter the air for nanoparticles, societal changes increasing individual choices...etc. If you take into account all these trends, the initial prediction is highly dampened... --

It is possible to simulate complex social relationships, subtle social attitudes and empathetic stances with affective agents without an explicit or implicit artificial intelligence model. : True from BG Conversely, I would argue that implicit AI models may "learn" from scenarios that could be played and replayed like human dreaming allow long term memorization of recalled events. We could imagine that "archetypes" could be instantiated in scenarios that act offline on the trained AI... Nice theoretical link with Jungian psychoanalysis ! --

Ray Kurzweil predicts that by the 2030s, nanotechnology will eliminate disease : Yes / No / Other from BG will end on 01/09/2030 14h49 Ray Kurzweil proposes a positive view on the future. Despite the interest of AI and nanotechs to improve medicine, I propose that malicious events and people (or machines) could interfere in order keep a selection pressure and their political power on people. --

Pokemon Go (Niantic): Niantic will face lawsuits for damage caused by the use of their virtual reality game : No from BG Augmented reality games have consequences in the real world and thus must be safe. It would be easy, for Niantic, to forbid any interaction while moving above X mph (such as driving a car). If they do not enforce such a simple limitation, it means that they agree with the possibility to ride a bike while playing. -- I have launched a change.org call for the idea of responsibility: --

Upgraded reality: augmented reality is only a step toward what I call upgraded reality, in which people live through separate customised realities with their own sets of perception-modifying devices : Yes this will concern a majority / Yes, limited to certain people / No / Other from BG will end on 01/08/2021 10h04 See a post of these ideas on Kurzweils' excellent forum: -- One collateral outcome of upgraded reality will be found in psychology and psychiatry. A criteria of mental illness is a disturbance of reality perception and one goal of mental health care is to bring the patient in a better relationship with reality, and his environment. With new technologies, reality could be modified sufficiently to meet the patients' needs, like an extreme extension of what is made 'nidotherapy'. Psychiatric classifications, psychotherapies would be profoundly modified because one way to provide wellbeing could be the modification of reality! New kind of psychotherapist or 'reality builders' should be trained. --

Upgraded reality hypothesis: with new technologies new kind of psychotherapists should be trained to work on reality modification rather than cognition reshaping : Yes / No / Other from BG will end on 01/08/2021 13h51 A criteria of mental illness is a disturbance of reality perception and one goal of mental health care is to bring the patient in a better relationship with reality, and his environment. With new technologies, reality could be modified sufficiently to meet the patients' needs, like an extreme extension of what is made 'nidotherapy'. Psychiatric classifications, psychotherapies would be profoundly modified because one way to provide wellbeing could be the modification of reality! New kind of psychotherapist or 'reality builders' should be trained. -- This should have also profound consequences in rehabilitation, recovery and empowerment approaches. These approaches focus on the patients' decisions about their own life and projects. With upgraded realities, it would be about helping to reshape environment to recover health. --

Hypersleep cultural and societal consequences: repeated hypersleep will allow humans living different realities through self-paced awaken/sleeping rhythms : True / False / Other from BG will end on 01/12/2025 14h07 With the mastery of hypersleep, each human being will be able to control the timecourse of his life by choosing the number of years/decades/centuries between each wakening. Different populations will be synchronized this way and will be able to use the same places/cities while never crossing each other. Hypersleep will generate the possibility to have parallel humanities expending the number of humans being able to live on a planet. Social and cultural consequences are considerable... --

Artificial intelligence: the development of AI decision and the possibility given to AIs to hold properties will lead to the dispossession by humans of any forms of belongings : Yes / No / Other from BG will end on 01/02/2020 19h19 In french 2017 elections campaign, one candidate (M. Hamon) raised the topic about the progressive end of "work" and of a universal income for everyone. He argued this issue was also discussed by Bill Gates under the term of "robot tax" There is a very strong debate about the problem that could arise if human work and money aren't correlated anymore. In the question of property, the same issue appears with AI and not robots. But here, the question is about belongings under any form. The unprecedented speed of AI such as in the excellent film "Her" could result in a complete distortion of the markets with a drastic increase of virtual belongings prices. Thus, real world belongings would not be as valuable as they were until the arrival of AI in the property holders field. -- High-earning traders will quickly become an endangered species as AI takes over the financial sector. --

EmDrive thruster: propulsion systems that don’t need propellant as the EmDrive (electromagnetic drive) is possible : True / False / Other from BG will end on 01/01/2027 11h51 EmDrive is one of the spaceship equipment that would allow interstellar travels. The problem is that no proof of feasability or even theoretical arguments demonstrate that this system could be designed (picture: White et al. via AIAA) --

What will be the most ancient fossils of hominid that will be discovered in the future? : 6 millions years-old / 7 millions years-old / 8 millions years-old / 9 millions years-old / Other from BG will end on 06/10/2018 16h32 Sahelanthropus tchadensis is an extinct hominine species that is dated to about 7 million years ago, possibly very close to the time of the chimpanzee/human divergence, and so it is unclear whether it can be regarded as a member of the Hominini tribe.[1] Few, if any, specimens are known, other than the partial skull nicknamed Toumaď ("hope of life"). (source Wikipedia) --

Writing the statements (verbal utterances) of a virtual agent (in academic research and industry) will require the experience and skills of new professionals : script writer / psychologist / code writer / Other from BG will end on 07/09/2019 08h03 In my own experience of writing sentences to be pronounced by an avatar, it is quite clear that it is important to tune precisely the style, the pragmatic level, etc. The exercise is closer to writing a drama than creating the verbal material of a psycholinguistic experiment...
There are also interesting issues due to the non prosodic vocal synthesis. It is not easy finding a correct style when prosody is absent and to take into account some faulty pronunciation by the virtual agent.
--

To emerge the phenomenon of consciousness relies on quantum physics specifically, i.e. theories that do not involve quantum phenomenon cannot account for all mind-matter relationships. : Yes / No / Other from BG will end on 02/01/2020 09h24 I must say that I was absolutely not convinced by quantum theories of consciousness until yesterday, when I read the news about the NSA developing "quantum computer that could crack most types of encryption" (see ref. above). It occurred to me that brain (and living cells) have developed since the "beginning" in a universe where quantum physics is the rule. It means that complex phenomenons that could help to process data in a "new optimized way" were available to our neurons for millions of years. If the NSA can break codes with quantum computers, why not some of our neurons in a way that we don't understand yet? Sir John Eccles offered a precise micro-tubular theory about that a few years ago. -- An important recent paper to read on this topic Consciousness in the universe : A review of the ‘Orch OR’ theory (Stuart Hameroff, Roger Penrose): "there is a connection between the brain’s biomolecular processes and the basic structure of the universe."... "The Orch OR proposal suggests conscious experience is intrinsically connected to the fine-scale structure of space–time geometry, and that consciousness could be deeply related to the operation of the laws of the universe" --

According to Bryan Sykes, a geneticist at the University of Oxford, the Yeti is apparented to a bear and not an hominid. To what the Yeti should be apparented ? : Bears / Hominids / Felins / Totally unknown specie / Other from BG ended the 10/02/2017 09h38 The Yeti has never been identified as a specific specie. As for "big foot" evidence of it's existence is scarce and even untrustfull. This research on DNA sequence may constitute one first line of scientific evidence. --

Cryogenic conservation of tissues: Radiofrequency inductive heating of iron nanoparticles may allow tissue warming without damage, a step toward cryogenic sleep : Yes / No / Other from BG will end on 01/03/2019 12h57

Technological singularity : Stephen Hawking recently evoked the hypothesis that robots could end the humanity. What could we expect if artificial intelligence outperforms human intelligence? : AI attacks Humans / Human become slaves/toys / AI help humans / Humans remain the leaders / Other from BG will end on 01/12/2020 09h14 About technological singularity accounts, this wikipedia article. -- After homo sapiens, are we heading to homo superfluus? I mean that human will become the second intelligence in the known universe, rapidly being under the control of more rapid and clever intelligences? --

Brain function metaphors: A promising way to model information processing occurring in mammal cortex will be to consider "cognitive textures" ? : True / False / Other from BG will end on 31/12/2025 13h24 Here I propose that brain cortex is made like a tissue as in our clothes. From the repeated connections of this tissue specific information processing will be generated and allows learning, planifaction, categorization, etc. --

Augmented humans vs. conscious AI: as humans may benefit from brain implants and AI cortical extensions, AI will benefit from the conscious properties of biological brains. : True / False / Other from BG will end on 01/12/2020 13h58 Here, we submit the hypothesis that articial intelligences (i.e. silicon based AI) will look for getting an access into biological consciousness by being plugged into animal or human brains. This is the exact opposite of the human brain extension in which humans look for extra cognitive skills with cortical implants. -- Please, also comment on Kurzweil's fantastic blog! --

Trump vs. Clinton (US Election 2016): the winner of this vote will be... : Donald Trump from BG This election will lead to two absolutely different and irreconciliable politics... frightening no? -- Well... it appears that Trump enters in some trouble zone these days ! --

New frontiers: when will the first human consciousness make a travel into a non biological substratum (i.e. artificial neural networks, computers, or quantum computers)? : 2025 / 2035 / 2050 / > 2100 / Other from BG will end on 30/09/2020 18h39 As Niels Armstrong was the first man to travel where nobody went before, thus changing the way we think about humankind, I propose here that a human mind extension into silica (or computer hardware) may be our next travel. When computer hardware will be strongly connected with our cortex, an extension of consciousness will occur. Then it will be possible, in a case of anesthesia to "unplug" our biological brain and let only "think" the computerized psyche. It appears that when coming back to consciousness a form of mental travel beyond the biological soul would have been achieved! --

Singularities: Among these potential major changes which one will occur the first? : AI singularity / Extraterrestrial contact / Virtual reality preference / Immortality / Human augmentation from BG will end on 01/09/2020 13h57 In my view, AI singularity is among the most probable paradigm change humanity will face (and generate!). However, all the possibilities listed here have an epistemological potential of "changing everything": I mean culture, religions, economy, and even metaphysics. The importance of the question is that given the order in which these likely divergences will appear, history of humanity will follow radically different ways. And face different challenges and threats... --

Global warming: temperature at the northern pole by the end of December 2016 will stay around 0 Celsius (an excess of 20 degrees above the average observed there) : True / False / Other from BG ended the 01/12/2016 09h14 Some models project Greenland melting... 3000 years in the future. See Ridley et al. But are the models correct... Do they account for chaotic events? --

Global warming and technological singularity theory : global warming threats will be significantly reduced by the use of artificial intelligence allowing to overcome Human's limited capability to find successful solutions? : True / False / Other from BG will end on 24/01/2020 08h38 Beyond the fact that AI technologies could help solving complex problems, I emphasize the role of an artificial brain as an authority or even a "leader". Humanity has obvious difficulties to adopt a common point of view and to share solutions to the global warming threats. Rare are the examples of such commonalities: only religions, i.e. God, or, more recently, "Money" gather billions of people around some common thinking. Maybe an artificial intelligence, going far beyond our best performances, would gather world leaders, and populations around a common objective, solutions. It would also propose solutions based on innovations and new technologies, and not on restrictive regulations (like current political leaders). (pict. Colossus: The Forbin Project, from Wikipedia) --

Asteroids: with the increasing detection of asteroids near the earth orbit, it will happen that some fall on the moon and provoke a spectacular view from the earth. : yes / no / Other from BG will end on 01/10/2020 07h55 It has already happened and was even photographed! See this link a picture from Jose Madiedo, a professor at the University of Huelva. We could expect that such a phenomenon of a large magnitude, seen by million of people could increase the awareness in the asteroid threats and have some political consequences. --

Voynich: The Voynich manuscript secret will be uncovered. The source language is: : an ancient american tongue / an asian language / a cypher / random generated text / Other from BG will end on 06/10/2025 00h09 Only a few words have been deciphered by a careful analysis of the numerous illustrations of the manuscript. for example the word Chiron a Centaur has been identified. -- See this reference A Preliminary Analysis of the Botany, Zoology, and Mineralogy of the Voynich Manuscript by Arthur O. Tucker, Rexford H. Talbert HerbalGram. 2013; American Botanical Council. Here one of their illustration for a plant that could be "Caulanthus Heterophyllus". It is native to California and Baja California, say the authors. --

Religions: religious beliefs are often associated with a high degree of anthropocentrism. Which discipline will provide the first proof against human-centered view of the world, and consequently religions? : artificial intelligence / genetics / extraterrestrial life / philosophy / Other from BG will end on 06/10/2021 22h43 To be more precise with these hypotheses: here artificial intelligence refers to machines passing the Turing test; genetics is about modifying the human species toward other forms of life; extraterrestrial life refers to the discovery of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe; philosophy refers to any form of intellectual advance that makes anthropocentrism outdated, including new cosmological models. --

The multiverse (meta-universes) theories will gain support among cosmologists in the future as it is still debated. : Yes / No / Other from BG will end on 01/10/2017 16h16 @Loomyer : You are right. In fact, it appears from the Wikipedia article (I must admit that I am absolutely a novice in cosmology) that many versions of multiverse theory exist. In the question I meant any type of multiverse view on the universe with the exception of a direct application of quantum physic principles like the Schrödinger's paradox of the Cat. If the question is vague or unclear, I will try to make it more precise! Thanks! -- "It is important to keep in mind that the multiverse view is not actually a theory, it is rather a consequence of our current understanding of theoretical physics. " argues ... but "The race is now on to find a way to test the theory, including searching the sky for signs of collisions with other universes." --

KIC 8462852 will provide the first evidence of an alien life : true / false / Other from BG will end on 01/10/2020 08h18 Weird flux were found coming from this star. Researchers are puzzled as nothing like that should come from this kind of star.
Look at the planet hunter website for helping these researchers and at Wright's blog dealing with alien's megastructures
--

Virtual psychiatrists will be designed to assess and educate chronic mental disordered patients. These virtual clinicians may be preferred by patients with complex social cognitive disorders. : True / False / Other from BG will end on 01/09/2018 14h12

Oxytocin administered before therapy session enhances the effects of social cognitive remediation on empathy, theory of mind, emotion recognition, and functioning. : True / False / Other from BG ended the 01/10/2016 20h48 Oxytocin is hypophysial hormone secreted by the posterior pituitary gland. -- "The hypothesis was that oxytocin would increase understanding of emotions, empathy, and facial expression and that the combination of oxytocin and social skills training would bring the highest level of improvement," Mark Weiser, MD, chairman of psychiatry, Tel Aviv University, Israel, told delegates in
"But the bottom line was in our hands ― in these patients, oxytocin was not efficacious in improving social function in schizophrenia."

--

Editorial

Welcome to the first Open Database of Hypotheses in Sciences and Technology.

alternativehypotheses.com is an independent, non commercial site that allows you to store your hypotheses about scientific and technological topics, to create polls and to follow the results as they appear. Once registered, you will obtain free timestamped proofs of your choices and statistical estimations of your scientific expertise in the different domains of knowledge.

The site was conceived and is moderated by scientists to allow a free debate. To give your support to this project, you can: contribute to the debates and put a reference to alternativehypotheses.com on your websites and blogs!

With kind regards, BG


On page 2, forecast in Sciences and Technologies!

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Top-10 Most debated hypotheses

1. Technological singularity : Stephen Hawking recently evoked the hypothesis that robots could end the humanity. What could we expect if artificial intelligence outperforms human intelligence? 6 votes

2. Religions: religious beliefs are often associated with a high degree of anthropocentrism. Which discipline will provide the first proof against human-centered view of the world, and consequently religions? 6 votes

3. The multiverse (meta-universes) theories will gain support among cosmologists in the future as it is still debated. 5 votes

4. One of the following vocal assistant will be the first computer program to pass the Turing test without any human help. 5 votes

5. Superior temporal gyrus activation elicited by social visual stimuli with intentional contents (theory of mind) is under strong top-down influences ? 4 votes

6. To emerge the phenomenon of consciousness relies on quantum physics specifically, i.e. theories that do not involve quantum phenomenon cannot account for all mind-matter relationships. 3 votes

7. What will be the most ancient fossils of hominid that will be discovered in the future? 2 votes

8. Virtual psychiatrists will be designed to assess and educate chronic mental disordered patients. These virtual clinicians may be preferred by patients with complex social cognitive disorders. 2 votes

9. Voynich: The Voynich manuscript secret will be uncovered. The source language is: 2 votes

10. Artificial intelligence: the development of AI decision and the possibility given to AIs to hold properties will lead to the dispossession by humans of any forms of belongings 2 votes

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