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agents allow artificial belongings brain cognitive conscious consider cortex could decision designed development dispossession donâ drive electromagnetic emdrive forms from function future generated given hold human humans information intelligence lead mammal metaphors model need occurring possibility possible processing promising proof propellant properties propulsion repeated systems textures this thruster view virtual

Working hypotheses

Artificial intelligence: the development of AI decision and the possibility given to AIs to hold properties will lead to the dispossession by humans of any forms of belongings : Yes / No / Other from BG will end on 01/02/2020 19h19 Agents driven by artificial intelligence will obtain the possibility to hold property and goods will trade with their homologs. Economic growth will be progressively driven by AI financial decisions. Humans will only have a spectator point of view on this exponential virtual market. --

Technological singularity : Stephen Hawking recently evoked the hypothesis that robots could end the humanity. What could we expect if artificial intelligence outperforms human intelligence? : AI attacks Humans / Human become slaves/toys / AI help humans / Humans remain the leaders / Other from BG will end on 01/12/2020 09h14 About technological singularity accounts, this wikipedia article. -- After homo sapiens, are we heading to homo superfluus? I mean that human will become the second intelligence in the known universe, rapidly being under the control of more rapid and clever intelligences? --

EmDrive thruster: propulsion systems that don’t need propellant as the EmDrive (electromagnetic drive) is possible : True / False / Other from BG will end on 01/01/2027 11h51 EmDrive is one of the spaceship equipment that would allow interstellar travels. The problem is that no proof of feasability or even theoretical arguments demonstrate that this system could be designed (picture: White et al. via AIAA) --

Brain function metaphors: A promising way to model information processing occurring in mammal cortex will be to consider "cognitive textures" ? : True / False / Other from BG will end on 31/12/2025 13h24 Here I propose that brain cortex is made like a tissue as in our clothes. From the repeated connections of this tissue specific information processing will be generated and allows learning, planifaction, categorization, etc. --

Augmented humans vs. conscious AI: as humans may benefit from brain implants and AI cortical extensions, AI will benefit from the conscious properties of biological brains. : True / False / Other from BG will end on 01/12/2020 13h58 Here, we submit the hypothesis that articial intelligences (i.e. silicon based AI) will look for getting an access into biological consciousness by being plugged into animal or human brains. This is the exact opposite of the human brain extension in which humans look for extra cognitive skills with cortical implants. -- Please, also comment on Kurzweil's fantastic blog! --

Hypersleep cultural and societal consequences: repeated hypersleep will allow humans living different realities through self-paced awaken/sleeping rhythms : True / False / Other from BG will end on 01/12/2025 14h07 With the mastery of hypersleep, each human being will be able to control the timecourse of his life by choosing the number of years/decades/centuries between each wakening. Different populations will be synchronized this way and will be able to use the same places/cities while never crossing each other. Hypersleep will generate the possibility to have parallel humanities expending the number of humans being able to live on a planet. Social and cultural consequences are considerable... --

Trump vs. Clinton (US Election 2016): the winner of this vote will be... : Donald Trump from BG This election will lead to two absolutely different and irreconciliable politics... frightening no? -- Well... it appears that Trump enters in some trouble zone these days ! --

New frontiers: when will the first human consciousness make a travel into a non biological substratum (i.e. artificial neural networks, computers, or quantum computers)? : 2025 / 2035 / 2050 / > 2100 / Other from BG will end on 30/09/2020 18h39 As Niels Armstrong was the first man to travel where nobody went before, thus changing the way we think about humankind, I propose here that a human mind extension into silica (or computer hardware) may be our next travel. When computer hardware will be strongly connected with our cortex, an extension of consciousness will occur. Then it will be possible, in a case of anesthesia to "unplug" our biological brain and let only "think" the computerized psyche. It appears that when coming back to consciousness a form of mental travel beyond the biological soul would have been achieved! --

Pokemon Go (Niantic): Niantic will face lawsuits for damage caused by the use of their virtual reality game : Yes / No / Other from BG will end on 19/08/2017 13h57 Augmented reality games have consequences in the real world and thus must be safe. It would be easy, for Niantic, to forbid any interaction while moving above X mph (such as driving a car). If they do not enforce such a simple limitation, it means that they agree with the possibility to ride a bike while playing. -- I have launched a call for the idea of responsibility: --

Singularities: Among these potential major changes which one will occur the first? : AI singularity / Extraterrestrial contact / Virtual reality preference / Immortality / Human augmentation from BG will end on 01/09/2020 13h57 In my view, AI singularity is among the most probable paradigm change humanity will face (and generate!). However, all the possibilities listed here have an epistemological potential of "changing everything": I mean culture, religions, economy, and even metaphysics. The importance of the question is that given the order in which these likely divergences will appear, history of humanity will follow radically different ways. And face different challenges and threats... --

Global warming: temperature at the northern pole by the end of December 2016 will stay around 0 Celsius (an excess of 20 degrees above the average observed there) : True / False / Other from BG ended the 01/12/2016 09h14 Some models project Greenland melting... 3000 years in the future. See Ridley et al. But are the models correct... Do they account for chaotic events? --

Global warming and technological singularity theory : global warming threats will be significantly reduced by the use of artificial intelligence allowing to overcome Human's limited capability to find successful solutions? : True / False / Other from BG will end on 24/01/2020 08h38 Beyond the fact that AI technologies could help solving complex problems, I emphasize the role of an artificial brain as an authority or even a "leader". Humanity has obvious difficulties to adopt a common point of view and to share solutions to the global warming threats. Rare are the examples of such commonalities: only religions, i.e. God, or, more recently, "Money" gather billions of people around some common thinking. Maybe an artificial intelligence, going far beyond our best performances, would gather world leaders, and populations around a common objective, solutions. It would also propose solutions based on innovations and new technologies, and not on restrictive regulations (like current political leaders). (pict. Colossus: The Forbin Project, from Wikipedia) --

Asteroids: with the increasing detection of asteroids near the earth orbit, it will happen that some fall on the moon and provoke a spectacular view from the earth. : yes / no / Other from BG will end on 01/10/2020 07h55 It has already happened and was even photographed! See this link a picture from Jose Madiedo, a professor at the University of Huelva. We could expect that such a phenomenon of a large magnitude, seen by million of people could increase the awareness in the asteroid threats and have some political consequences. --

Voynich: The Voynich manuscript secret will be uncovered. The source language is: : an ancient american tongue / an asian language / a cypher / random generated text / Other from BG will end on 06/10/2025 00h09 Only a few words have been deciphered by a careful analysis of the numerous illustrations of the manuscript. for example the word Chiron a Centaur has been identified. -- See this reference A Preliminary Analysis of the Botany, Zoology, and Mineralogy of the Voynich Manuscript by Arthur O. Tucker, Rexford H. Talbert HerbalGram. 2013; American Botanical Council. Here one of their illustration for a plant that could be "Caulanthus Heterophyllus". It is native to California and Baja California, say the authors. --

Religions: religious beliefs are often associated with a high degree of anthropocentrism. Which discipline will provide the first proof against human-centered view of the world, and consequently religions? : artificial intelligence / genetics / extraterrestrial life / philosophy / Other from BG will end on 06/10/2021 22h43 To be more precise with these hypotheses: here artificial intelligence refers to machines passing the Turing test; genetics is about modifying the human species toward other forms of life; extraterrestrial life refers to the discovery of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe; philosophy refers to any form of intellectual advance that makes anthropocentrism outdated, including new cosmological models. --

The multiverse (meta-universes) theories will gain support among cosmologists in the future as it is still debated. : Yes / No / Other from BG will end on 01/10/2017 16h16 @Loomyer : You are right. In fact, it appears from the Wikipedia article (I must admit that I am absolutely a novice in cosmology) that many versions of multiverse theory exist. In the question I meant any type of multiverse view on the universe with the exception of a direct application of quantum physic principles like the Schrödinger's paradox of the Cat. If the question is vague or unclear, I will try to make it more precise! Thanks! -- "It is important to keep in mind that the multiverse view is not actually a theory, it is rather a consequence of our current understanding of theoretical physics. " argues ... but "The race is now on to find a way to test the theory, including searching the sky for signs of collisions with other universes." --

KIC 8462852 will provide the first evidence of an alien life : true / false / Other from BG will end on 01/10/2020 08h18 Weird flux were found coming from this star. Researchers are puzzled as nothing like that should come from this kind of star.
Look at the planet hunter website for helping these researchers and at Wright's blog dealing with alien's megastructures

Virtual psychiatrists will be designed to assess and educate chronic mental disordered patients. These virtual clinicians may be preferred by patients with complex social cognitive disorders. : True / False / Other from BG will end on 01/09/2018 14h12

Oxytocin administered before therapy session enhances the effects of social cognitive remediation on empathy, theory of mind, emotion recognition, and functioning. : True / False / Other from BG ended the 01/10/2016 20h48 Oxytocin is hypophysial hormone secreted by the posterior pituitary gland. -- "The hypothesis was that oxytocin would increase understanding of emotions, empathy, and facial expression and that the combination of oxytocin and social skills training would bring the highest level of improvement," Mark Weiser, MD, chairman of psychiatry, Tel Aviv University, Israel, told delegates in
"But the bottom line was in our hands ― in these patients, oxytocin was not efficacious in improving social function in schizophrenia."


Social neurosciences: recognition of other's helping behavior is a neurocognitive component that participates to relational empathy during patient-clinician encounters. : True / False / Other from BG will end on 01/09/2017 09h11 In our view, recognition of help is a theory of mind component, and thus may be investigated with corresponding methods. It is also a construct that participates in patients recognition of the helping intention in their clinicians. In the absence of such a recognition, relationship with the clinician is dampened. --

One of the following vocal assistant will be the first computer program to pass the Turing test without any human help. : Siri (Apple) / Google Play or Everywhere / Yes, another one / False / Other from BG will end on 01/08/2017 10h51 Additionaly, I would argue that Turing test might not be so selective... I would propose an extension of the test (if no-one has proposed it before) that is : "an intelligence is human, if any living or artificial intelligence capable of judging votes that it is..." -- An exemple of a dialog given by Ray Kurzweil with Eugene Goostman the robot of Princeton University. " We are therefore proud to declare that Alan Turing's test was passed for the first time on Saturday. Kevin Warwick, PhD Not so sure... --

Schizophrenic patients with theory of mind deficits have reduced superior temporal gyrus electrical activation : true / false / Other from BG ended the 01/10/2016 23h52

With respect to the administration of cocaine, Eating cookies (high fat and sugar food such as Oreos) evokes in rats brain activity in the reward regions that is : significantly superior / equal / significantly inferior / Other from BG ended the 10/02/2017 09h38 According to Joseph Schroeder cookies provoke in rats higher behavioral interest and brain expression of c-Fos in the nucleus accumbens. --

Superior temporal gyrus activation elicited by social visual stimuli with intentional contents (theory of mind) is under strong top-down influences ? : True / False / Other from BG will end on 30/09/2017 15h05 A recent experiment by us revealed that instruction did not change dramatically STS activation... If published, I will vote for False, but if anyone has other arguments... --

To emerge the phenomenon of consciousness relies on quantum physics specifically, i.e. theories that do not involve quantum phenomenon cannot account for all mind-matter relationships. : Yes / No / Other from BG will end on 02/01/2020 09h24 I must say that I was absolutely not convinced by quantum theories of consciousness until yesterday, when I read the news about the NSA developing "quantum computer that could crack most types of encryption" (see ref. above). It occurred to me that brain (and living cells) have developed since the "beginning" in a universe where quantum physics is the rule. It means that complex phenomenons that could help to process data in a "new optimized way" were available to our neurons for millions of years. If the NSA can break codes with quantum computers, why not some of our neurons in a way that we don't understand yet? Sir John Eccles offered a precise micro-tubular theory about that a few years ago. -- An important recent paper to read on this topic Consciousness in the universe : A review of the ‘Orch OR’ theory (Stuart Hameroff, Roger Penrose): "there is a connection between the brain’s biomolecular processes and the basic structure of the universe."... "The Orch OR proposal suggests conscious experience is intrinsically connected to the fine-scale structure of space–time geometry, and that consciousness could be deeply related to the operation of the laws of the universe" --

Connecting two persons with a bidirectional neural connection (direct mapping of an area's activity) could allow a direct subjective investigation of phenomenal and access consciousness. : true / false / Other from BG will end on 06/09/2017 23h31 As for the example of twin sharing common neural systems, future technology will allow mapping brain activity of a person to another one. Sensation of merging conscious contents could allow an exploration of a new frontier in our knowledge of consciousness. -- See this experiment: Grau C, Ginhoux R, Riera A, Nguyen TL, Chauvat H, et al. (2014) Conscious Brain-to-Brain Communication in Humans Using Non-Invasive Technologies. PLoS ONE 9(8): e105225. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0105225 --

It is possible to simulate complex social relationships, subtle social attitudes and empathetic stances with affective agents without an explicit or implicit artificial intelligence model. : True / False / Other from BG ended the 01/08/2016 08h01 Conversely, I would argue that implicit AI models may "learn" from scenarios that could be played and replayed like human dreaming allow long term memorization of recalled events. We could imagine that "archetypes" could be instantiated in scenarios that act offline on the trained AI... Nice theoretical link with Jungian psychoanalysis ! --

Writing the statements (verbal utterances) of a virtual agent (in academic research and industry) will require the experience and skills of new professionals : script writer / psychologist / code writer / Other from BG will end on 01/08/2017 08h58 In my own experience of writing sentences to be pronounced by an avatar, it is quite clear that it is important to tune precisely the style, the pragmatic level, etc. The exercise is closer to writing a drama than creating the verbal material of a psycholinguistic experiment...
There are also interesting issues due to the non prosodic vocal synthesis. It is not easy finding a correct style when prosody is absent and to take into account some faulty pronunciation by the virtual agent.

What would be the main benefit in using an affective agent for cognitive remediation of social cognition ? : directly stimulates cognition / facilitates cognition / acts on motivation / reduces social anxiety / Other from BG will end on 01/08/2017 10h25 Virtual agents are know to be appreciated by children. This phenomenon may be profitable in adults even if they have impaired social cognition. I would state that 1) motivation by play, 2) fear reduction would be the main way to help socially impaired patients enter into the complex, unpredictable, poorly systematized social world. Picture : see the use in the Boston museum of Ada and Grace to guide children's --

Computer sciences will be able to conceive an artificial intelligence that has a IQ above 200? : Yes / No / Other from BG will end on 24/11/2018 22h14 Siri, the apple iphone vocal assistant, is questioned on the fact that it could meet the Turing test criteria ! See this article... -- Note this interesting website maintained by Ray Kurzweil, and important thinker on futurology and avocate of the singularity hypothesis : --


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With kind regards, BG

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